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February 25, 2008

Ten tips to survive a property downturn

House_price_crash_2

It’s the news that every homeowner has been fearing – house prices are definitely falling.

Halifax says prices fell 2.4 per cent in May and are now down 3.8 per cent on a year ago. Last week Nationwide also reported that prices fell 2.5 per cent in May. Most experts expect there to be plenty more bad news to come.

But there is no need to panic. Falling house prices bring opportunities for buyers. There is also plenty that sellers can do to ease the pain. Here are ten tips to help you ride out the property downturn

TIPS FOR BUYERS

Falling prices are positive

As house prices have soared, more and more first-time buyers have been priced out of the market. A slowdown could change all that as more homes fall within the range of would-be homeowners.

A downturn is also good news for people who already own a property and would like to move to a bigger home or more expensive area. Trading up gets easier in a downturn because the gap between the cost of smaller and bigger properties narrows. Say your flat is on the market for £250,000 and you are trading up to a £400,000 house. Prices in your area fall 10 per cent meaning you take a £25,000 hit on your flat but the price of the house drops by £40,000 to £360,000. That’s a net gain of £15,000.

Don't count on big discounts

If you’re holding off buying, hoping that prices will plummet, prepare to be disappointed in London and the south east as property experts believe prices will remain resilient. Analysts also expect prices in Scotland to hold up as well.

However, it doesn’t hurt to haggle. There is so much bad news around that sellers are feeling nervous – experts say that you could easily knock 10 per cent or more off the asking price.

Rent to lock in profits

If you’re convinced the market in your area is going to fall further be prepared to move into rented accommodation and wait for the market to drop before buying back in. House prices need to fall by about 4 per cent to make it financially worthwhile to sell to rent, according to property analyst Knight Frank.

Do your homework

Find out how much similar properties have sold for by typing the postcode into the website Hometrack.co.uk or Upmystreet.com. But remember that these are backward looking: they tell you what homes sold for in the past not what they are selling for now. Propertyforecasts.co.uk, which estimates future price movements for the next five years, is also worth a look, although it costs £15 for a full report.

Get your finances in order

As sentiment has soured, fewer vendors are putting their properties on to the market so you must be ready to pounce when your dream home comes along. Talk to a mortgage broker when you start looking to find out how much you can borrow and what the best deals are. You improve your chances of having access to the best deals if you have a deposit of 20 per cent or more, don't need to borrow a high income multiple and have a spotless credit record. Several brokers such as L&C (www.lcplc.co.uk) and Charcol (www.charcol.co.uk) have useful calculators which estimate how much you will be able to borrow.

AND FOR SELLERS...

Price realistically

Putting your home on the market at the right price is key if you want to guarantee a quick sale. Get several valuations from estate agents and also take a look at the websites mentioned above – then set the price somewhere in the middle. As a rule of thumb, estate agents suggest you should ask for about 5 per cent more than you realistically expect to get. However, if you really need to sell fast, set an asking price slightly lower than your ideal from the off – it looks better than desperately slashing the price at a later date.

Flexibility pays

You’ll make yourself more attractive to potential buyers if you can move out fast – it also gives them less chance to back out of the deal. Consider moving into rented accommodation if you are offered a good price but have nowhere to move to.

Don't move, extend

If you’re moving because you need extra space, extending your existing home could be cheaper and less hassle. However, you need to make the right improvements at the right price. A loft conversion is the single most valuable alteration you can make to your home, according to a study by Nationwide. By adding 300 square feet of floor space made up of an extra bedroom and bathroom you can add over 20 per cent to the value of your property. Turn a two-bedroom house into a three-bed and you can increase its value by 12 per cent. But can you bear the builders and the mess?

Don’t be afraid to pull out

Just because you’ve hoisted a “For Sale” sign doesn’t mean that you can’t change your mind if you’re not seeing the interest you hoped. Ignore the hard sell from your estate agent. They’ll probably try to convince you that there are lots of interested buyers waiting in the wings – the chances are it’s the first time you’ve heard their voice in weeks.

If you don’t need to sell, stay calm

It’s a statement of the obvious but one that, in property obsessed Britain, we often forget: if you’re already on the ladder and not planning to sell in the near future it doesn’t matter if house prices drop. The chances are that by the time you need to sell prices will be back up again. Even if they’re not think of all those juicy gains you’ve made over recent years –house prices are up an average 59 per cent over the past five years, according to Halifax. A house that was worth £120,000 at the end of 2002 was worth nearly £200,000 in December. Think about all that “free” money and stop worrying.

More from Money Central:

Are house prices heading for a 1990s style crash?

House prices: the 10 most recession-proof counties

Ten easy ways to drive down petrol costs

Ten tips to survive a property downturn

The thrifty fifty - 50 easy ways to save cash

The 10 most ridiculous fines of all time

The 10 biggest stock market crashes of all time

The 10 most infamous heists ever

The 10 craziest parking tickets ever

The 50 wierdest terms of financial jargon - and what they actually mean

Posted by Times Online business desk on February 25, 2008 at 03:50 PM in Mortgage | Permalink

Comments

No, you mustn't be ready to pounce as prices drop....because prices are going to being dropping continually for the next 4 years...It's the last 4 years of the 18 year boom/bust cycle.

That's right, the 18 year boom/bust cycle that the media always neglects to inform you about (doing this would dissuade the herd from buying into housing as an asset & effectively neutralize the upturn & stop rich elites from cashing in).

So remember; price drops for the next 3-4 years, DON'T BUY TILL YOUR STR FUND BECOMES A 100% DEPOSIT!

Posted by: david morrison | 26 Feb 2008 10:20:53

Yes, whilst the property market comes crashing down London and the South East will remain high. After all, look at the last crash - in my hometown of Brighton prices only dropped by a mere 45%! Of course it is all different this time - inflation won't be high enough to hide these drops.

To be honest this article reeks of denial. The same commentators were saying only few months ago that prices would have doubled again by 2012.

Posted by: Paul | 26 Feb 2008 12:07:25

I think you're being a bit paranoid, David Morrison. Why would the media care if the super-wealthy are able to make money from property? On the wages reporters are on, they're unlikely to ever find themselves amongst the financial elite.

Posted by: Alli | 26 Feb 2008 14:30:58

With UK personal debt at 101% of GDP, (£1.35 trillion versus £1.33 trillion), the affordability ratio at 9-1 as opposed to the historical average of 4,5-1, inflation kicking in and likely to get worse as the pound continues to devalue, the best bet for householders is to sell now and rent for the next three years. This is by when inflation will have reduced debt in real terms to give the market some wriggle room.

Posted by: figurewizard | 26 Feb 2008 16:29:01

I'm a homeowner, not a mortgagee. I don't fear a fall in house prices as I have paid my mortgage off :) I plan to trade up once the market bottoms out in about four to five years time.

Posted by: Paul in Coventry | 27 Feb 2008 07:17:37

Not every homeowner fears a fall in house prices. I'm a homeowner and I can't wait for prices to come down so I can afford to buy somewhere larger when the differential reduces.

Posted by: Mike C | 27 Feb 2008 10:26:37

House prices are driven by supply and demand, with less element of 'sentiment' than shares. The predicted price crash is overstated I think. There is no massive increase in supply, and no real reduction in demand. The Bank of England may drop interest rates further also. The yo-yo prices in the 1980s were caused by a chancellor who used interest rates as a mechanism to regulate money supply. And buy-to-let investors would be mad to dump their properties now, while rents are slowly going up, interest rates coming down, and property prices are cooling.

Posted by: Eric | 27 Feb 2008 16:29:51

"I'm a homeowner, not a mortgagee. I don't fear a fall in house prices as I have paid my mortgage off :) I plan to trade up once the market bottoms out in about four to five years time. Posted by: Paul in Coventry".

Not quite sure what point of general interest to the general public you were trying to make, Paul.

But, err, well done you for somehow avoidng the potential problems that affect most folk. You are quite right though. Sometimes economic deficiencies favour the slum-dweller.

Just think - if the relevant authorities in Coventry carry out the desperately required remedial works, if your place doesn't get cleared in the slum clearance, you might up end in a place marginally above the UN "decency for human residency" threshold.

Give yourself a well-deserved pat on the back.

Living in a slum in Soweto, Rio de Janeiro or Coventry.

To paraphrase a crap advert, "Oh, your Excellency, you spoil us...."


Posted by: Dave Scratter | 27 Feb 2008 22:24:06

Supply and demand Mike --

You miss the point. Demand for housing is a function of the money that those who will live in it can afford to pay or are willing to pay. There is a reason why the medium-long run property price is consistently 4.5 times income, because at that level a 25-30 year mortgage can be typically paid off using less than 1/3 of a take home income. London is at 9-10 times income, twice the norm.

All the be happy, don't worry comments about supply and demand consistently misunderstand demand -
1 person does not equal one unit of demand, the relationship is one household income sets a demand/price level.

If all the happy thoughts that people are being told about London were true, house prices in Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh would be higher than London -- after all, it has a higher population, faster population growth, and less available land.

Posted by: Colm MacKernan | 28 Feb 2008 08:18:00

Eric, how much more supply do you need than the mass of evictions that will occur over the next three months. This in conjucture with those buy-to-let investors that are not willing to risk
a decrease in market value will definitely saturate the buyers market.

Posted by: Martyn | 28 Feb 2008 09:58:37

Eric, how much more supply do you need than the mass of evictions that will occur over the next three months. This in conjucture with those buy-to-let investors that are not willing to risk
a decrease in market value will definitely saturate the buyers market.

Posted by: Martyn | 28 Feb 2008 09:59:17

The comments made by this writer are ludicrous...

For people reading this you would do well to listen to the post about 18 year boom/bust cycles - the next 4 years (I think slightly longer due to the prolonged period of boom on this occasion) are to be ones of rapid prolonged decline.

Economics has, like many things in life, mathematical patterns and this is one of them.

If you enjoy being in a state of negative equity or frittering away those nuts you've been hoarding follow the guidance of this moron.

Posted by: Paul Sullivan | 28 Feb 2008 11:49:06

Paul Sullivan, you are not, per chance, one of those sad and bitter losers who thinks they know economics and has therefore been renting for the last five years expecting house prices to go down.
Get a life.

Posted by: PityTheFool | 28 Feb 2008 12:01:48

Between supply and demand lays the factor of money that enables the two to meet. No money means no transaction even if the supply and demand are a perfect match. The mortgage market will fundamentally change in the next 2-3 years and with it will the types of available mortgages. Interest only buyers will think twice about going down that route as in a flat or falling market it makes no sense to pay the inflated APR. If you have a 25% deposit and are happy to repay you should be fine but in order to keep that bill to about 1/3 of your household income borrowing anything north of 200k (on a median income) is a problem. The recent boom was fuelled by the availability of cheap money. But that has stopped.

Posted by: Carl | 28 Feb 2008 12:33:37

Paul in Coventry...was your comment boasting or gloating? You didn't make it clear.

I would guess it was boasting as living in Coventry you wouldn`t have anything else to boast about.

See writing rubbish is not limited to your pathetic post ... I can do it too.

Joe

Posted by: Joe | 28 Feb 2008 12:39:36

If house prices crash massively, then it will leave so many people with negative equity that they won't be able to sell, meaning that properties available to first time buyers will be very few, potentially making it even harder for them to get onto the ladder.

And if you're planning on selling before prices crash and going into rented, then let's just hope that your landlord doesn't decide to sell up too, thus leaving you homeless. Again.

Posted by: Rhiannon | 28 Feb 2008 14:16:45

Oh dear. There are some bitter and twisted people here aren't there! Dave Scratter you know a lot about slums, you must live in one yourself. Oh and Joe, ever been here? I doubt it.

For those who don't understand, as house prices fall so will the disparities between different types fall. So an extra bedroom will cost £25K instead of £50K.

Posted by: Paul in Coventry | 28 Feb 2008 19:30:03

From the huge amount of comment it's clear that the obsession with house prices continues. It has always been difficult for a first time buyer, but never more so than now.
However the writing is now on the wall for house prices. Mr Brown has promised 3 million more new homes. The days of 100% mortgages are gone. There are still thousands of unsold flats. There has already been uncovered a conspiracy concerning the misreporting of ACTUAL sale prices to the Land Registry. Many BTL investors will be tempted to sell after April, when capital gains tax drops to a flat 18%.
But the most important negative effect of prices will be the atitude of the first time buyer. Who in their right mind would make the biggest investment of their life int something that is actualy falling in price. This could run and run, with prices dropping monthly to a floor below reasonable value, as the first time buyer watches the incredible spectacle of house prices falling without knowing where the bottom of the market will be .

Posted by: David Nammory | 29 Feb 2008 13:46:54

Sadly too many people have bought into the fallacy that that there is a shortage of houses - there is not - if there were rents would have risen as fast as prices - whereas in many places they have been nominally stable and falling in real terms (adjusted for inflation) - this despite a drop in the number of home owners from around 70% of to nearer 60% - which means more people are renting than ever before - yet there is still plenty of rental property available.

Too many people confuse desire (I want a Bentley) with economic demand (I can only afford a Ford).

This is not just my view - Professor David Miles of Imperial College London (and an economist at Morgan Stanley) said his own calculations suggested that: "little more than half of the three-fold rise in house prices over the past 10 years can be explained by fundamental factors – for example increasing population, limited supply, rising income and cheaper debt. The rest is more difficult to explain."

However Tim Bond from Barclays Capital recently did a pretty good job of explaining the rest to the FT when he pointed out that “After a period of strongly rising prices, the expectational component comes to the fore and becomes the key factor determining real house prices.”

Or as John Authers at the FT translated "If people see house prices rising, greed trumps everything else. In the short- term, this is a self-fulfilling prophecy."

Mr Bond went on to point out that this forward momentum can eventually turn - as it has done already in the USA - and can be just as powerful in reverse.

Posted by: Huw Sayer | 29 Feb 2008 17:33:53

David Nammory you are spot on. As mortgage loans fall to 3 x gross salary and maximum 90% LTV, house prices will follow suit. The relative disparities between different areas and types of houses will remain but the absolute costs of all properties are likely to fall to RPI-adjusted pre-boom levels.

Post '9-11' the BoE followed the Fed's lead in holding interest rates too low for too long. As in the USA, this created a speculative bubble, which, like every other such bubble, is about to burst.

Additionally Sterling's weakness relative to the Euro is leading to a net outflow of Eastern European migrants (as reported in this paper), which in turn affects the viability of buy-to-let, there being fewer tenants chasing the properties.

Posted by: Paul in Coventry | 29 Feb 2008 17:56:45

I cannot believe this eternal optimist tosh. It is great for those with property if it goes up in price. Now it's great if it goes down too. Fancy that. You cannot lose.

I wonder if the guy was giving similar suicidal advice on the dotcom crash:

"Now is your chance to buy those Pets.com and Boo.com shares you've always wanted but couldn't afford".

Any prospective first time buyer would commit economic suicide by buying now. Stick your deposit money into gold and watch it rocket while house prices crash. Then go into the market in 2-3 years and get somewhere decent for half the price.

Posted by: Paul | 2 Mar 2008 08:55:59

Unlike all the cocksure contributors to this page; I really have no idea how far the property market will fall.
Living and working in Europe and one day hoping to return home, I obviously take a keen interest in house prices and have to confess that my investment have not quite kept up over the last few years.But, that is now being rectified and I have a vested interest in hoping prices fall further. I must also admit to thinking they would have begun to fall long before now and have been surprised at their continued robustness. Does that mean, however, that now the fall will be all the greater?

Posted by: Norman Saunders | 3 Mar 2008 13:44:00

That chap in the photo is my best mate's wee brother Sean, taken in Vienna. Hilarious.

Posted by: stuart lodge | 15 Mar 2008 14:22:42

As a big property invester with over 150 properties think? Property is the best investment .Think of property 10 years ago . Think of it now . And watch it double in 10 years from now . If you can buy streets of property. Do not let the papers put you off they have nothing else to write about.Keep on buying

Posted by: gerard | 3 Apr 2008 21:56:57

"A house that was worth £120,000 at the end of 2002 was worth nearly £200,000 in December. Think about all that “free” money and stop worrying."

You were right to put quotes around "free". Of course, the money you've "made" (assuming you sell) isn't free. Is is being paid for by the younger generation who are trying to buy their own homes.

Still, what are the younger generation for if not to screw over?

Posted by: Matt ODonnell | 4 Apr 2008 12:57:42

Eric says that house prices are set by supply and demand and that these factors favour stable or rising prices.

He's right that supply and demand is king, but he misunderstands the definition of both.

Demand means the desire to buy PLUS ABILITY TO PAY, and that is going nowhere but down as bank lending dries up.

Supply does not mean the housing stock but the number of homes put up for sale. In my postcode (BB4), the number of homes listed on Rightmove has doubled in 18m.

So falling demand, rising supply - what does that say about what price movement we can expect?

Posted by: Dylan Summers | 4 Apr 2008 14:11:36

gerard you are an r'tard, property does not double evey 10 years. It is always a cyclic market. there are no miracles when it comes to house prices. BTW you aren't rich either just because you have mortgages on 150 properties you don't own them. As your bank is about to demonstrate; if your loans are business then you have to demonstrate the LTV and repayments are realistic. Good luck over the next 3-4 years. Also if you want to get out now you will find it hard to get your imaginary money out of the bricks and mortar.

Posted by: Andrew | 4 Apr 2008 15:15:09

Gerard (aka Alister Darling) hows the return on your BTL portfolio, hope you don't have to refinance any of those in the near future-could be a tad expensive. Oh nearly forgot you eligible for a staff discount on the Northern Crock lie-to-buy mortgage. Don't forget house prices only go up /no more boom and bust / its different this time (delete as appropriate to the status of your smugness and delusion)

Posted by: Schaden Fraud | 4 Apr 2008 17:02:08

The key is to stop, ban, whatever you call it, negative comments about house prices. It is all sentiment.

We could also use some progressive taxation measures such as a wealth tax on bank account balances in order to subsidise the massive losses that landlords are making on rentals. A rent replacement scheme for voids would keep up rental prices, hence property prices, hence credit, hence Labour.

Then it will be time to party on the Tory nay saying grave.

Posted by: Labour Voting Multiple Landlord | 5 Apr 2008 00:20:45

No but seriously, Coventry IS a sh*thole.

Posted by: Casbah | 5 Apr 2008 01:13:17

History has always shown to me that buying property is a good investment. My parents bought a £15,000 property in 1966 in Berkhamsted. Today it is valued at one and a half million. I purchased a property 13 years ago for £180,000 and it was valued last week for £780,000. I'm not an economist or good business man but in the long term, buying property
is the way to building a financial future. I realise that getting on the property ladder is hard today but it was hard for me buying my first house 18 years ago and then losing value during the property crash era. But it meant that other bigger properties became more affordable too. Personally my only gripe is stamp duty. I believe that if stamp duty must be applied then it should be levied on set house sizes across the whole UK rather than purchase price. That's my bit...

Posted by: Jim | 5 Apr 2008 04:29:24

My god our society is ugly and this article and discussion holds a mirror up to it.

Being one of 'Thatcher’s children' the house price phenomenon repulses me (as with most of the news that I read everyday on our decaying society) despite being unaffected through gaining enough money not to worry as a side effect of trying to make the world a better place. This country is in the grip of the most evil, rampant free market capitalism in the world and it makes me ashamed to be English. It would be nice to see her suffer in a reincarnation if Buddhists are right based on the suffering she has brought to the people of this country and across the world, which has only been perpetuated (accelerated?) by the last 10 years of New Labour. But would it be possible to inflict that much suffering?

As for all those who are about to suffer because of the greed of the last 30 years, so what? Those who live by the sword. I have a ‘buy to let’ parasite attached to me at present as I am in transit for a job and I wish him every ill for feeding off of me for his personal pension.

I hope that karma is also real and that at last those who have fed off of society or exploited people for personal gain either through buy to let or as part of the property merry-go-round suffer financial bankruptcy to join their moral bankruptcy. What goes around comes around.

What the hell, let’s privatise the air supply, if you can’t pay you’ll be cut off and be obliged to suffocate. Survival of the fittest, isn’t that what this is all about? Careful you don’t get crushed in the rush of greedy little small investors. Sell shares, sell property, sell gold, buy O2.

Posted by: Corin | 5 Apr 2008 17:39:45

I think people pay for properties what they expect them to be worth in one years time in the hope/anticipation of more of the same price trend-thus for about the last 12 years people have been willing to borrow say 200K to buy a 250K property in the hope that this time next year it will be worth 280K or more, and onwards and onwards! Now the anticipations are all for decreases in prices the willingness to buy will drop and couple this with the banks retraction of mortgage availability and this will pull the final leg out from under the stool under the market! BUT like all things the banks inherent greed will not dissapear but just submerge for a while, when prices have dropped, the credit crisis has abated and lower-prices again stimulate demand banks will one more return to making money via the up-swing of another market cycle! Having said that I expect this cycle to take 5 years or more to play out, at least-and that might be an optimistic estimate! If you own property now I guess you face an importnat question, do you want to sell now (and accept the losses, because the all-important optimistic market sentiment is already gone) or do you want to wait the long time it will take to ride the oscillation out? I am probably missing an important point but is it not true that at present if you were a buyer/investor there's short-trm, no-easy money in property for people who aren't in the super-rich category (properties over 1 million pounds apparently still doing well), for the rest of the property-investor population therefore patience is needed! For potential buyers patience will also yeild, but there I think people can expect a positive outcome in 1-2 years-if lower prices are there desired outcome!

Posted by: Steve | 5 Apr 2008 22:32:28

The market is crashing in Hawaii. Buy now, it will be back up soon.
Its a buyers market here. I have made over half million on my own
in home sales in the last 5 years.
I just sold a owner builder and lost a potenital 100k because I wanted out of this market. I will
rent for 6 monts and buy again. Good luck all, and go DINAR go!

Posted by: Luke | 6 Apr 2008 04:29:10

It's possible to make money out of anything where the price is cyclical. Doesn't matter whether the prices are rising or falling.
Tax free money too if you are house owning and live in that house. Downsize when prices are up, upsize when prices are down. Make improvements to your property between sales.
Buy the house with the asset that no-one else can see.
Buy the house with the obvious problem that you can see the solution to.
Nice little hobby. Especially if you're a DIY man. Nice little earner too
Timing is the key.

Posted by: Harold Armitage | 6 Apr 2008 17:05:13

Well, well, well!

Here we are again!
The same old arguments back and forth, similar to the other last house price crunch!

The only difference is, this time our "Don't say Brown say Hovis" deliberately held the Bank Rate artificially low to suck in all the non thinkers into taking up a mortgage, knowing full well the afore mentioned punters would be sucked in!

They (The Punters) never gave it a second thought that Bank rates go UP as well as DOWN!

The new ingredient to this mix as opposed to the past formulae, is the Mortgage lenders will not be tying their interest rates to the bank rates, so regardless of whatever the Bank base rate is, the Mortgage lenders will now want 50% up front and the rest now, as a deposite on a mortgage!

On a personal note, I thank the good Lord I do not have a mortgage, I was fortunate/lucky (more luck than judgement) enough to have just paid off my mortgage.

I have no intention of selling up and capitalising on my good fortune!

My home is for living in, it has all the ingredients I need, a small back and front garden, so at my time of life, why the hell do I need to put myself through all that palaver of estate agents, moving, etc, etc, etc!

I also believe the media has a lot to answer for, encouraging people to keep moving up the property ladder ad-infinutum!

No thanks, I am quite content with my little place! Gotta go now, tomato seeds to sow, albeit a little late in the season!

Regards to all,

GERONIMO

Posted by: GERONIMO | 6 Apr 2008 18:40:43

There are clearly some very intelligent folks out there who understand property, economics and their relationship.

There is one point with the funding of property that seems to have been overlooked thus far. Discounted interest rates.

If cheap money has gone, and people are foced into higher repayments as a result, what effect would this have on the market?

p.s. I know the answer, I'm just trying to prompt people to think about their bullish statements...

Posted by: Rob T | 6 Apr 2008 23:05:19

It's ironic that the only people that can afford to get onto the housing ladder are the rich and the poor.
The rich because...well...they're rich
And the poor because they have the option of buying their council house for peanuts.
I bought my 3 bed house in 2002 for £28,000. It was the last council house in the village.
It's worth £140,000 as it stands.

"Ugh! Council house!" you say?
We have one of the lowest crime rates in the country. I'm surrounded by greenbelt land and overlook the Welsh coast. My neighbours are a mix of working class and middle class and one of the last places where neighbours actually know each other and talk.
I love it here and would never even consider going back to my family home which as it happens is a £million mansion where the neighbours never ever talk to each other.
I think I'm wealthier than my parents in that respect :)

Posted by: Phill Barlow | 7 Apr 2008 04:08:20

Most comments about property purchase as a financial investment omit reference to the massive benefit in that property is not just a matter of whether the sale price exceeds the purchase price but that it provides a home, which everyone needs. If the amount otherwise spent on rent is factored into the financial gain, the benefits are massive, especially since people also usually feel happier in a dwelling they 'own' even if the morgage is not yet paid off.

Posted by: CAGNEY | 7 Apr 2008 14:13:00

Timing and luck are the only requirements in property purchase. The former is doubtful at present and the latter will soon be dispelled by paying close attention to the surveyor's report.

Posted by: john | 7 Apr 2008 18:34:20

So many vested interests were at work pushing the house prices bubble for so long. And they are still at it. Ok there will be sectors of the market and areas where things hold up. But by no means all.

A house is worth what people are willing and able to pay for it. No more and no less.

So, absolutely clear that anybody with an eye to value is going to at least consider not pitching in for a while yet unless it is a distress purchase. The market has some way to drop yet.

Rate cuts are expected so not much of a prompt to sign up for that mortgage just yet either

Add to that a general sentiment that bad times are a coming and people are pulling their horns in and another slug of potential buyers are backing off taking on further financial burdens.

In the city the general expectation is of significant decreases of 2009 bonus payouts plus lay offs. All of a sudden a more modest lifestyle seems prudent.

So not a great deal of "willing" there.

Because mortgage providers pulling the rug out under high LTV mortgages, hiking up rates and taking fright in general the "able" bit is under stress for some as as well.

And then we have the Northern Rock boat people who in increasing numbers will be flushed out as they come off of their fixes.

That 125% mortgage based on bubble property prices that seemed such a good deal a while ago? Simply not capable of replication. The term "stuffed" will be apt for a fair number.

Last but not least we see unsecured lending and credit card debt piling on in place of Equity Release: EXACTLY the same behaviour pattern as in 2007 US prior to the collapse
as people exhaust all souces of funding to postpone the inevitable.

No gain without pain. And for many here comes the pain.

Posted by: Brian Herren | 7 Apr 2008 18:47:11

Lemme see, I can either:

Spend 1000 quid a month for the next 25 years paying the mortgage on a damp little two-up two-down terrace with a very small concrete yard.

Or

Spend 1000 a month paying rent on a 4-bedroom detached with extensive gardens until the housing market goes kerplunk ...

Choices, choices ...

(Buying? You must be mad)

Posted by: M. R. | 7 Apr 2008 20:02:38

Just a question really: From my understanding much of the upward pressure on mortgage rates is due to interbank lending rate being so high due to the lack of liquidity in the market. However, if the BoE were to act to relieve this pressure, might it not mitigate the downward trend in prospective buyers' "ability to pay"? (spot on defintion btw) That way we would be more likely to get a soft-ish landing rather than a hard fall...

Posted by: MH | 8 Apr 2008 13:11:29

The experts who are paid millions have repeatedly failed to predict what will happen in the property market over the last five years. Yet in these comments we have dozens of people who know exactly what is going to happen and why.
A valuable resource.
The Schadenfreude in some of these comments is very unpleasant.

Posted by: hmm | 8 Apr 2008 13:26:02

I am very new to the property game so don't presume to know a great deal but from where i'm standing the market seems to do whatever the general public expects it to. A self fufilling prophecy in effect.

If confidence in the market falls rapidly, as it has been due to media scaremongering for the past 6 months, then surely this will guarantee a market decrease.

I may be talking complete rubbish but there are so many completely different views here that I think it's safe to say that forecasting an accurate model for the market is nigh on impossible due to the dependance the market has on human emotion fear and greed.

Posted by: Jon from Essex | 8 Apr 2008 21:35:58

You stupid limeys! OK, do I have your attention? I am 55yrs. All my savings are in my house in SW Florida. I am ruint. Wallstreet bankers ran a scam of "free" mortgage money combined with "illegal" construction workers, ie wetback mexicans. End result, surfeit of property, dearth of demand. I could have 'demanded', but my job was taken by a wetback mexican. Now Pablo is taking his $100k back to mexico to live in luxery 4ever. My house is now nearly worthless because of over supply. Thanks Bush, Queenie, Judah.....whatever!

Posted by: Dave Mende | 8 Apr 2008 23:41:56

House Prices are a combination of many factors, supply, demand of housing stock, supply and demand of money, inflation, oil prices, interest rates,
Housing Supply / Demand short term supply will increase buy to lets sell off / demand will fall as first time buys can't get 100% mortgages.
Supply of Money reduction of mortgage products from 12000 to 3000 bank of england having to pump billions into the market to help.
Interest Rates, These will probably fall, but the interest which buyers pay many not fall, interest rates are directly linked to inflation, as the bank of england is commissioned to keep inflation to 3% don't expect drastic falls like the USA as i don't think the governer of the bank of England likes writing those letters.
Oil Price demand for Oil is going to increase over the next few years China India they all want cars like us. Oil affects the cost of goods/ thus inflation, that is why interest rates will remain around the 5% mark, meaning in the short term prices will fall and according to the so called experts 20% which i can belive but would not realy upon, conservative estimates are that the housing market will fall 15% in the next 2 years.
Now for those who have been using the housing market to fund a more lavish lifestyle by "putting it on the house" will have to cut back there spending" all sensible comments welcome

Posted by: Simon | 8 Apr 2008 23:56:27

Anyone who has kept an eye on current affairs could not have missed what has been going on in the US for the last two years. The UK has always followed their lead and now owe more on credit cards than the rest of Western Europe put together. Frankly people who remortgage their houses to fund holidays and cars are just plain stupid.

I sold my property in the UK last year and moved to Euros and I will be buying back in 2010-11. I expect the Euro to be worth considerably more than the pound by then. The buy-to-let industry will compound falls as investors won't be able to stomach majors falls and will try to offload.

The sad thing is that our society will go through misery for the next few years; broken homes, crime, drug-use etc. Personally I fancy my chances in Poland!

Posted by: Markus | 9 Apr 2008 07:21:05

Honestly! Just listen to you all - I mean it, just start at the beginning and hear these voices for the sound of modern Britain. We moved to Germany some years ago and I'm thankful we live in a country where renting a house is normal and if people buy a house it is for living in. Europe seems to understand that to enjoy life you need spare cash for holidays, outings, sports, etc, which most Brits seem to feed to their mortgage provider. They also don't have this DIY obsession every weekend - families here can be seen in the parks, not trailing around DIY stores every weekend trying to catch up with the latest decor must-have to keep up with the market.
I feel I can criticise because we, too, were once in the grip of this buy/obsess/sell cycle and felt it was completely normal and desirable. After being damaged by tenants in our house in Holland (British tenants) who refused to leave at the end of their lease, a house we couldn't sell when we very much needed to because my husband's job changed from one country to another, we have finally realised what freedom is - no mortgage, ability to move at short notice, less stress, fixed outgoings, very little decorating or improvement necessary and, lots and lots of time to do other things. 'Get a life' is such a cliche phrase but it does have meaning in this situation.

Posted by: Barbara | 9 Apr 2008 08:22:12

Why do "experts" not expect prices to fall in London and the South East? Do they think the area is immune? Judging by the redundancies to come in the financial sector, not to mention the bonuses dissappearing, where do they think the money for the inflated prices will come from? It may take a little longer but London prices will come down by probably more than the rest of the country no matter how many of the "experts" try to talk them up. They probaly live in the area so have a vested interest.

Posted by: Paul | 9 Apr 2008 08:58:47

Ah....How to get on the ladder, that is the question. I feel sorry for first time buyers.
There IS a solution, you never hear it mentioned. That is, you build your own house.
That is REALLY BUILD IT with your own two hands. There are various ways of going about this and as to the how, the information is all out there, in the library, on the internet. Yes it takes time, especially part time.
But lets face it, most people are just too idle.

Posted by: Harold Armitage | 9 Apr 2008 18:51:15

Advise owners to sell up and rent en masse, and you'll accelarate any price downturn and send rental figures spiralling as landlords from the hideous buy-to-let phenomenon (responsible for the inflated market today) cash in on high demand.
PS economics is not mathematical, it has no certainties. It's simply based on cynical game theory, which has been discredited as a practical model by its very own creator, who now says it doesn't account for the irrationality of people.

Posted by: JL | 9 Apr 2008 20:15:02

There are some really idiotic people here. I don't think any of us should be celebrating possible economic slowdown or recession. Recession will not only result in homeowners losing their homes but those living in rented accommodation will face the same problem.

- Who do you think owns the flat you are renting and what will happen when it is repossessed?

- What will happen to pensioners already stretched? Do you want them to end up living in a cardboard box too? Not bad enough that they cannot afford to heat their homes they should now lose them as well.

Jobs will be probably be lost and more people will have to survive on benefits - this is hardly something to cheer. Even if prices drop dramatically the lack of credit will affect the ability to arrange a mortgage or any other loan for that matter. Remember the source of this problem is that the banks are now too afraid to loan money so we will all lose out in the long term.

Those of you who are desperate to see a recession to get on the property ladder need to think again about your own greed-ridden motives.

Posted by: James Smith | 11 Apr 2008 02:21:33

I thought banks were in business to lend money and borrow a multiple of it. How long can they go on forcing/keeping borrowers away?

Posted by: jayner | 11 Apr 2008 08:28:53

Rarely read so much tosh in my life. And the bitterness is shocking. Never thought so many pseudo economists read The Times. For those advocating renting in favour of owning ... where do they rent from if not BTL landlords?

Posted by: Giuzeppe | 11 Apr 2008 09:17:17

Read some good – and crazy stuff here. Wanna know what you should know about yourselves? Then don’t read on…

Supply and demand Dave –

You miss several points! Demand for housing is indeed a function of the money that those who will live in it can afford to pay or are willing to pay. In Bangladesh the average wage is £170 a year – less than a day’s cost for a Polish plumber in London. Something tells me this massive disparity may be the real reason why their house prices aren’t higher than ours!

Pitythefool – now there is a comment that hits the nail on the head! But we need to look beyond the onset of the current crunch - as soon as the banks (psychologically and financially) can they will be loaning more in order to be competitive so to raise their profits. I am not saying it will be at the rate of the last couple of years – but it will not be like the next couple.

Schaden Fraud – in your dreams (aka, get a life)

Jim – love it! “My god our society is ugly and this article and discussion holds a mirror up to it.” – you then go on to stand in front of it naked with bile ridden comments such as; repulses me- decaying society- most evil, rampant- ashamed to be English- see her suffer (repeated half a dozen times)- parasite attached to me- I wish him every ill - I hope…suffer financial bankruptcy. Ugly!

Luke – you have it right of course. Though most people (as Phill Barlow says) treat their house as a home (whether they want to or not) often because they are wage slaves with families attached to local schools etc.

John and Brian Herren – you have it right, follow their advice! Simon – I hope you are wrong, but you probably aren’t

Posted by: kev | 11 Apr 2008 09:37:49

Want to get a £1 million house today for just £200,000? Then do what I did, come to the Philippines (an English-speaking country) and buy a brand-new, American-style detached range home (5 beds, 7 baths, 2-car garage, 3 floors, attic room, driver's room, maid's room, 2 living rooms, dining room, 2 kitchens, etc.) in an upscale gated enclave in the outskirts of Manila for £200,000 only. This is a house which would cost you a cool million in the Home Counties. By the way, in the Philippines not only do all people speak good English and are friendly and pleasant people, the weather is 25-30 C all year round and the general cost of living is 20-30% of the UK, depending on what you're buying. Crime is virtually non-existent, this being a Catholic country with very strong family values. Hospitals are some of the best in the world here, with most doctors trained in the USA. Of course, slums and poverty exist here, but as a foreigner you can separate yourself from that completely. I recommend you check out the Philippines to buy a second home or retirement property. Forget other places like Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, which are more dangerous, unwelcoming to westerners, too hot/humid and have impenetrable languages. Buy in the Philippines! It's dirt-cheap, safe and lovely! I'm 37 years old only, but I just went into semi-retirement over here. Brittany Corporation (http://www.brittany.com.ph/)is a great developer to buy your Filipino dream home from. No recession or housing market crash over here!!!

Posted by: expat Brit | 11 Apr 2008 10:37:27

Since only a moron would sell his/her house below what he paid for it, there will be no substantial fall in prices. There is slack in the market and sellers in a hurry can afford to knock the odd ten percent off, having made a fifty percent or more gain over the last few years. Very few people ever NEED to sell up, in most cases we can all sit happily on our nest eggs waiting for a time and price that suits us. Looking at many of these posts it is clear that the politics of envy have been truly kept alive by the Euro-socialist regime. When will people realise that working hard and investing in your own future is not a social crime, but something we all should aspire to. Invest in your local community by buying into the property market, and you will then be a contributing member of society rather than a social parasite living under the roof of someone who has been prepared to invest in the future.

Posted by: mango | 11 Apr 2008 10:52:20

Expat Brit - you really need to engage your brain begfore you commit your thoughts to print.

"When will people realise that working hard and investing in your own future is not a social crime, but something we all should aspire to," says you.

Really? Aspire to borrowing nine times our income so that we can play along with your little game? Aspire to record levels of personal debt so that we can all pretend to be wealthy?

"Invest in your local community by buying into the property market," says you.

Tell me, how does that benefit a local community, driving up prices to levels where key workers can no longer afford to live in those communities? Or where youngsters no longer afford homes where they are from?

My guess is you live in a rabbit hutch in Torre or are one of those poor souls living the dream in rural Bulgaria.

Posted by: Sue in Spain | 13 Apr 2008 09:35:22

Mango wrote:
"Invest in your local community by buying into the property market, and you will then be a contributing member of society rather than a social parasite living under the roof of someone who has been prepared to invest in the future."

I've been reading these "Have your say" newspaper message boards for a couple of years now, and I think I can confidently state that your comment is the dumbest thing I have ever read.

So you are saying that people who can't afford to buy houses are parasites, whilst property investors are no doubt fine upstanding individuals contributing to society?

I assume you are a child. Make a copy of what you have written and take it into school on Monday to show to your teacher. They can explain to you what a fool you are.

Posted by: Mark White | 13 Apr 2008 09:47:00

Turning a two bed house into a three bed, by way of a loft conversion puts allot more that a mere 12% on the value. Its more like 20 to 30% if done well. The housing market seems flat now, but from all the reports I can't tell if its tits up, tits down, or a dead heat in a zeppelin race! How about mass disobedience and everyone stops paying their mortgages....they couldn't evict the whole population, or could they?

Posted by: JJ | 13 Apr 2008 16:24:06

Just imagine if the UK had adopted the euro back in 2001...

And what ever did happen to that referendum on the euro that we were promised?

Posted by: Paul Henry | 14 Apr 2008 02:31:51

bought a flat in 92 for 27k, went to sell in 94 and was told i would not get what i paid for it so i rented it ,someone else paid the mortgage. Didn't look at price much although i new it was eventualy rising. Sold in 06 for 140k.
Yes it may drop but the highs will be reached and surpassed again

Posted by: gary | 14 Apr 2008 20:48:03

Dave Scratter - it must be nice to not be a mortgagee and to be a prat at the same time eh? Slum-dweller - you need a reality check - get a life mate. It is precisely opinions and views like yours that cause property trouble in most areas - greedy sods who have no intention on ever really 'living' in an area and just use proerties as stepping-stones for their own selfish, self-centered egotistic means. Grow up. Materialist idiot.

Posted by: Grimnir | 15 Apr 2008 12:18:13

Historically, as a rule of thumb house values will double every 10 years. This is fact and this is what has always happened despite the booms and busts. Not only that, have you ever noticed that your mortgage repayment is roughly (and i do say roughly) the same amount that your property will have increased each month as an average over a 10 year period? A typical homeowner buys a property to live in, their family grow up in it and eventually it is sold. So if, like most people you live in your home for 25/30 years or more, a downturn in the property market is no big deal. Realistically it only effects property investors. Well, all business has its ups and downs and risks. The normal homeowner will always have periods of higher and lower monthly repayments, we have had lower for a long time, now we will see higher. Most people will keep their house, a very small percentage will lose theirs, but this always happens whether boom or bust. Life goes on and eventually your house price rises and you make a nice profit towards your retirement - unless you are in it for short term profits - then you have a problem - but you took the risk!!

Posted by: JasonB | 16 Apr 2008 16:20:46

David Scratter, is that your real name? It's a stupid name but it suits you.
This comment is intentionally stupid to make you feel more at ease.

Posted by: julie willnot | 17 Apr 2008 03:35:28

At the end of the day the rich will get richer and poor poorer especially when jobs start to go too. The buy to let market will simply start centralising into the hands of a few who can afford to sit this out and then control supply and demand of the rental market, which has been shoving up prices of private property ownership. So meantime be happy and enjoy what you can in life at least global warming has turned to global cooling at the moment.

Posted by: Chris | 17 Apr 2008 11:19:10

One alternative to renting while the house value decline rages on, and has not been mentioned among the above bitter sweet big girls blouses brigade , is to buy a small b and b,live and work in it. Then when you sell the property you sell it as a business rather a home which means you don't lose out in the declining housingmarket. Its an alternative to renting anyway.

Posted by: paul | 19 Apr 2008 01:33:34

HOUSE PRICES ARE falling and will continue to do so at a greater or lesser extent in all areas. Banks however are in the business of lending, once funds are available buyers will buy at prices that make sense. This price level as 1. the level at which a potential homebuyer's interest payments are equal or lower than rent and 2. the level at which landlords for a given rent can see a gross return of 7-8%. Looking at it this way house prices in many areas do not have far to fall, once banks have money to lend.

Posted by: Dave Turbert | 19 Apr 2008 10:03:52

I moved to Ireland in 1998 and got involved with the property market here and to say the least, this country is in far more trouble than the UK, for example a buy to let property here, now requires you to fund half a mortgage yourself as the rent will only make up the other half, at least back in the UK its much closer, just shows how overvalued property is here.

Posted by: Jason | 19 Apr 2008 15:23:25

I built my home in 2004 at a cost of £169500 for ground and building. Its a detached bungalow set in 1/2 an acre. Got it valued last summer at £500000+! Had to take a seat when I heard the estate agent come out with that one! The market has gone absolutly crazy. I much more realistic value would be £300000-£350000 imho. So I predict a 25% to 30% drop in prices from the peak valuations last year? I live near the North Antrim Coastline. I bought two apartments to rent out in 1999 and 2000 for £55000 each. I sold the first for £75000 and second for £85000 2 years later. The owner of the first tried to sell for £200000 and the second for £190000 last year. Both are still on the market! People had gone crazy last year and would have paid any amount just to jump on the bandwagon. The wheel has just come off and its crashing in slow motion! Nothing the government do or could do will put the wheel on to stop the crash now. So just keep smiling....

Posted by: willie | 20 Apr 2008 16:57:48

Hahahahahahahaa so London and the South East won't fall eh? Because this house price crash will be COMPLETELY DIFFERENT to eveery other crash, eh? And why?

Nonsense.

Prices will fall in London, hard, the city is in trouble, and more than anything, in every other crash prices have fallen in London.

The Poles will be off soon to a more successful country, now that the city is laying people off. That overcrowding, in an immigrant city, won't last long.

London crash ahoy.

Posted by: Patrick | 20 Apr 2008 23:38:23

To "Sue in Spain": You should learn to read the forum before you commit your thoughts to print, because it wasn't me who said that. It was the guy in the next post down. No, I'm not living in the rabbit hutch dream in rural Bulgaria, I live in a 5-bed, 7-bath detached American-style home in Manila, Philippines. Next time, be more careful and notice the blank line between 2 posts.

Posted by: expat Brit | 21 Apr 2008 09:00:47

The UK is over populated , the average citizen couldn't afford to buy a decent property without taking on a mortgage of 5x there salary and with living costs sky rocketing no wonder this economy is failing. The banks are in debt and if house prices fall these debts will be increased further causing interest rates to rise, Which is bad news for everyone including first time buyers and those with credit cards and loans. My only advice is to ignore the media , cancel your credit cards and save a deposit of at least 5-10% of your purchase value. The 50bn injection from the government to the BOE doesn't really solve the housing crisis but I guess it will provide some stability.

Posted by: ROSTRON | 21 Apr 2008 12:26:50

NOW NEARLY 60 AND HAVING LIVED IN THE UK MOST OF MY LIFE WATCHING ALL IN THIS FINE LAND BEING RIPPED OFF LIKE NO ONE ELSE IN EUROPE. SUCCESSFUL GOVERNMENTS A DISGRACE TO THE WORD DEMOCRACY.
PEOPLE FEARING TO VENTURE OUT AFTER DUSK FROM FEAR OF ATTACK BY VIOLENT DRUNKEN YOBS RULEING OUR TOWN AND CITY STREETS.
HIGHEST PRISON POPULATION IN EURORE
CORRUPT FREEMASONS RUNNING THE POLICE, COURTS AND MANY BIG BUISNESSES.
A POLICE FORCE ONCE THE ENVY OF THE WORLD WHICH NOW HAS VIRTUALLY NO TRUST OR RESPECT WITHIN ANY CLASS OR PEER GROUP.
A MEDICAL SYSTEM REDUCED TO DIY DENTISTRY...
I SOLD MY HOUSE AND LEFT,MOOVED HERE TO GERMANY WHERE I CAN BUY A NICE ONE BEDROOM APARTMENT FOR UNDER £50,000 AND STICK THE REST IN MY POCKET......
SADLY THE BEST ROAD IN ENGLAND IS THE M20 TO DOVER..AND WHEN YOU ASK FOR YOUR TICKET TO CROSS THE MOST EXPENSIVE WATER IN THE WORLD (PER MILE)
JUST SAY "ONE WAY PLEASE*.

Posted by: DAVID | 21 Apr 2008 23:16:55

Well I hoped to gain something useful from this, and yet all I read is gloating, racism, smug folk living abroad and wild claims by a legion of armchair experts.
Im sure there is some sound advice in here, but it's lost in a sea of anger and hate
Shame on the lot of you

Posted by: ross | 24 Apr 2008 17:31:13

Interesting comment on estate agents, even if it was an aside. I believe controlling that crowd of bloodsuckers would make housebuying and selling about 10 per cent cheaper.

Posted by: Iain | 25 Apr 2008 19:46:09

he's correct about germany though , there isn't the fetish about buying houses like the UK

Posted by: peter | 26 Apr 2008 18:27:18

ExPat Brit says "Invest in your local community by buying into the property market, and you will then be a contributing member of society rather than a social parasite living under the roof of someone who has been prepared to invest in the future.
"

I say "I love living in someone else's investment, especially as the rent is only about 66% of the cost of an interest-only mortgage. oh and the investment is falling in value. Maybe I will become a contributing member of society in 2-3 years' time when I buy it for half it's current value with cash and no mortgage"

Posted by: Paul | 29 Apr 2008 12:15:57

wow!!!!!!!!!
people need to calm down and get a life!

i am 21 and i have 5 properties started of at 18, doing really good and pleased with myself.

i have read comments through the forum and iam shocked with the comments.

YOU WILL ALWAYS MAKE MONEY IN PROPERTY - LONG TERM 10 - 20 YEARS

SUPPLY AND DEMAND -WE CAN'T BUILD ENOUGH TO KEEP UP TO SUPPLY.....THANK GOD!

DO NOT EVEN THINK ABOUT COMPARING UK AND THE----- (USA)

WHILE PROPERTY, FOOD, GOLD....GO UP IN VALUE PAPER MONEY ALWAYS DROP IN VALUE -FACT!

The goverment just can't stop printing.....ah what a loser but i guess thats the way the cookie crumbles!!!


Yes we have had the media and it's big mouth, blagging away because it has not got any other news to tell it's people.....REMEMBER MEDIA IS THE MOST POWERFULL TOOL IN THE WORLD, I CAN WRITE ANYTHING AND CHANGE YOUR THE WAY YOUR MIND THINKS!

god bless

JJ

Posted by: JJMM | 29 Apr 2008 17:56:51

Of course prices are going down. If enough people focus on it the momentum will build in that direction. Long term house prices always go up; all this talk of a crash is a short term view of the market. I suggest the government will continue to reduce interest rates, even at the cost of inflation, in order to stabilise the property market. Not good news for the GBP exchange rate but nevertheless a short term solution. Afterall, after 2008 change in Washington might bring something closer to the status quo back to the global financial markets. In the interim we can all talk negative - A fast dropping market will leave loads of opportunities for big fat profits while others become homeless.
As an addition note, It will be interesting to see what happens to the finance department in the UK. The man in charge there has a great history from time at the transport department when he lost billions over the Railtrack/Network Rail situation.. Now they gave the moron the economy to manage.

Posted by: Mark | 30 Apr 2008 13:55:51

There's a lot of people being smug, bitter and judgemental here. I say enjoy and love your home, whether you are renting or buying, appreciate the sanctuary and shelter it provides for you and invite lots of people round, so all our neighbourhoods wherever we live, are nicer, safer, friendlier places. Then we'll all be richer...

Posted by: Vans | 21 May 2008 18:14:37

Except Mark, that the govt. does not set the interest rates, the BoE does, and the rate looks as if it will have to rise (due to their mandate of keeping a lid on inflation) not go down.

Posted by: Olly | 21 May 2008 22:45:12

While property may be a good investment if you are a new home buyer that is borrowing you don't want to be borrowing money for an asset that is about to fall in value. Booms are followed by corrections as the market overshoots on positive sentiment.

Posted by: Michael | 22 May 2008 09:42:57

The UK is over populated , the average citizen couldn't afford to buy a decent property without taking on a mortgage of 5x there salary and with living costs sky rocketing no wonder this economy is failing. The banks are in debt and if house prices fall these debts will be increased further causing interest rates to rise, Which is bad news for everyone including first time buyers and those with credit cards and loans. My only advice is to ignore the media , cancel your credit cards and save a deposit of at least 5-10% of your purchase value. The 50bn injection from the government to the BOE doesn't really solve the housing crisis but I guess it will provide some stability.

Posted by: Carl | 25 May 2008 11:56:09

This issue causes such widespread bitterness because absolutely nothing else has created so much social division, wealth inequality and envy in mainstream British society in the last 10 years than this awfull, horrid property ramping phenomenon! Can young people who feel they can never afford a home be blamed for feeling envy when they watch a load of mid 40s home owners driving prices up by 1000's a month-of course not, and they have had to endure that for over 10 years until recently! Can people have have bought in the last 3 years be forgiven for wanting some sort of decent return when they have taken on large mortgages and paid fees etc, probably that's understandable too-although there's less reason to sympathise with the second group than the first!

The whole property price inflation phenomenon in this country in the last 12-15 years has been ill-advised, damaging to society, has split society ultimately, only really benefited the very rich and now been proven to partially unhinge the economy as the massive amount of public personal debt needed to keep the whole torrid ball rolling threatens to implode in on itself! Please NEVER AGAIN!

I also would like to say that people also buy and rent for reasons other than those delineated here in the responses! What about job mobility and people working in specialist jobs-both a widespread feature of modern society? I persoanlly purchased a flat 3 years ago when after 12 years of working on short term contracts I was finally offered a job contract labelled 'permanent'. The word permanent has to be in inverted commas because within 18 months I found out that the firm's finances were limiting and it was in my interests to move jobs/city. Rather than pay solicitor's fees, stamp duty etc. all over again I rented that property out and now rent myself! So I am a landlord, do I wish to parasitize off the tenant?, or make huge profits?, or retire rich?-NO! Now my situation is irrelevant by and largely to the discussion here, but it serves as an illustration that not all people who rent are in the BTL, greedy-parasite mode described so luridly by other bloggers here! It is dangerous to generalise!

If I could have one wish come true it would be that we never slide into a mess like this again! Let the prices fall 30-40% over the next 3 years, then ban those vacuous, awfull, vile property porn shows and introduce some regulation and moderation into the BTL phenomenon! I'm all for rationaing properties so no-one can have more than say 2, why should we have a country where some people can't have one house and others 'own' 150?-is that anyone's idea of a fair system of running society? Return houses to being places you live in and not income supplements, pension supplements, investment portfolio components etc, and restore much needed sanity to the crazy system!

Posted by: Steve | 31 May 2008 21:24:34

Lots of buy-to-letters sold last year as they only would have to pay as low as 10% in tax because of taper relief. The effect is to reduced the avereage house sold price because buy-to-letters operate at the lower end of the pricing bracket. The reducticion in loan to values which were as high as 120% and are more like 90% means that the balance of 10% to 30% has to be obtained from elsewhere. Consequently the 'average' rate for these loans will be higher than it was last year especially if you take into account the fact that recent base rate cuts are not reflected in the mortgage lending rate because mortgage rates are priced off 1 and 2 year sterling swap prices which are nearly 1% higher than a year ago.
Also banks and other intitutions are going to want to make back some of their sub prime lending foul ups hence the higer rates.
Last year base plus .25% as a tracker mortgage was easy to find, now base plus.75% is difficult.
So now the first time buyer only has a certain percentage of their income to spend on total mortgage outgoings so prices must fall at the lower end to attract activity. Look at the stock exchange prices of the builders...down 30 to 40%, so these guys must reduce prices and offer more incentives to attract buyers.

Posted by: Big G | 1 Jun 2008 01:29:46

"If you’re holding off buying, hoping that prices will plummet, prepare to be disappointed in London and the south east as property experts believe prices will remain resilient. Analysts also expect prices in Scotland to hold up as well."

Are these the same experts who predicted that there would be no property crash and that house prices would go up forever? Or is there a different set of experts that only make predictions once all the other experts have been wrong?

Posted by: Matt | 26 Jun 2008 08:47:09

without estate agents the property crisis we are facing would be much worse

Posted by: Emma Haller | 2 Jul 2008 09:28:04

The recent hit that the property market has taken has infact increased the number of long term rentals on the market as a solution to meeting rising mortgage payments.

Posted by: Emma Haller | 2 Jul 2008 09:50:24

One of the best investments you can make in times like this, infact any time is in GOLD! its the only real money! if you go back 5000 years gold was just as powerful as it is today! you will never lose out in the long run with it, check the History books, 10-20% of your wealth should be in gold!

Posted by: Chris | 6 Jul 2008 13:55:48

The ridiculous high rate of stamp duty was justified as it was needed to stop the overheating housing market.

Why is no one calling up this utter lie now.

There is no justification for it now at all.

It must be abolished.

Posted by: Melanie K | 16 Jul 2008 21:51:36

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