The 10 towns where house prices will bounce back first

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There's nothing like a graph to tell a story, and this one created by the clever boffins at Times Labs using Nationwide figures, shows the dizzying highs and lows of property values since 1973. But where will the line go next?

Property websites recorded a surge of activity in the first few weeks of this year, estate agents had a busier January than previous months and Halifax even reported a small rise in house prices. Some experts were quick to point out that these rises came from record lows, and  house prices are still expected to fall by 10 per cent this year. However, others suggest that this could be evidence of pent-up demand.

So which areas are attracting the most attention from would-be buyers? Here are the top 10 most searched for postcodes on Rightmove, the UK's largest property website, in the first two weeks of January.

It is worth remembering that Rightmove measures asking rather than sales prices. On that basis it puts the average UK house price at £213,570. Halifax, by comparison, measures sale prices and puts the average figure in January at £163,966.

1. BN3 - Hove

Potential buyers are desperate to pick up a property in the regency enclave of Hove, just down the road from Brighton on the Sussex coast, making it the most in-demand postcode in the UK. Property prices in Brighton & Hove climbed 1.2 per cent between December 2008 and January and increased 1.5 per cent in the last 12 months. The price of the average home is now £310,316, says Rightmove.

Bargain property:

Dresden House, Medina Villas, Hove, East Sussex, BN3. Four bedrooms, three reception rooms, Grade II listed. Price reduced from £1.6 million to £1.3 million (Srutt & Parker).

2. CR0 - Croydon

Croydon, in south London, was the second most searched for postcode on the Rightmove website. Buyers might be attracted to the promise of its fast rail connections to London or its popular trams. But despite the surge in interest from bargain hunters, prices in Croydon fell by 9.4 per cent in the last 12 months, and 1.2 per cent between December 2008 and last month. The average house price is now £259,790.

3. BN1 - Brighton

Brighton has a population of only 155,000 but it attracts over 8 million visitors each year, drawn by the fresh sea air and historic "laines". Property prices in Brighton & Hove climbed 1.2 per cent between December 2008 and January and increased 1.5 per cent in the last 12 months. The price of the average home is now £310,316.

Bargain property:

Varndean Road, Brighton, East Sussex, BN1. Four bedrooms and three reception rooms with seperate stable block and coach house. Price reduced from £1.75 million to £1.1 million (Winkworth). 

4. N1 - Islington

Islington, north London, has bucked the trend for falling house prices across the rest of the country as property values climbed 13.4 per cent in the last 12 months. Between December 2008 and last month the average price rose another 2.2 per cent to £584,206.

Bargain property:

Grantbridge Street, London, N1. Two bedroom lower ground floor apartment with communal garden. Price has fallen £430,000 to £395,000 (Hamptons International)

5. M20 - Manchester

Central Manchester was the fifth most searched for postcode on the Rightmove website. Manchester has seen average prices fall 9 per cent in the last 12 months, from £156,344 in January 2008 to £142,314 last month. However, demand for properties in Manchester pushed prices up 2.2 per cent in the first month of this year.

6. CM2 - Chelmsford

Chelmsford, an historic market town in Essex, has seen a small rise in house prices recently. Between December 2008 and January 2009 prices rose 1.1 per cent. Chelmsford has good rail connections to London, with regular services to Liverpool Street station in the City, which could have largely protected the town from the sharp drop in prices seen elsewhere. Over the last 12 months property values have fallen only 1.3 per cent. The average price is now £320,540.

Bargain property:

Adstocks, Great Baddow, Essex, CM2. Six bedrooms, five reception rooms, double garage and workshop. Price £975,000 (Strutt & Parker)

7. NG5 - Nottingham

Nottingham, in the east Midlands, has been boosted by a number of regeneration projects over the years and has a large student population, but average prices have been hit by a glut of city-centre new build developments. Rightmove found that prices in Nottingham fell 14.1 per cent in the last year, and 7.2 per cent in the last month, standing at £135,581, compared to £157,916 in January 2008.

8. E14 - Docklands/Isle of Dogs

Property prices in the docklands area of east London, home of Canary Wharf, are expected to bounce back in the next year as demand for flats near the huge office complex on the Isle of Dogs remains high. House prices climbed 13.2 per cent in the last year and 2.4 per cent in the last month. The average price, according to Rightmove, is now £448,071, compared to £395,648 in January 2008.

9. SS0 - Southend-on-sea

Southend-on-sea, on the Essex coast, home of the world's longest leisure pier, at 1.34 miles, has seen prices fall 11.5 per cent in the last 12 months and 3.2 per cent between December 2008 and last month. The average house price has dropped from £227,701 in January 2008 to £201,485 last month.

10. LE3 - Leicester

Homeowners in Leicester have been stung by a 15.1 per cent fall in house prices over the last 12 months. Prices are still dropping, with a 4.1 per cent fall in the last month alone. The average house price in Leicester is now £150,687. 

Bargain property:

Watkin Road, Leicester, LE3. One bedroom, first floor apartment situated in the Freemans Meadow Development, still under construction. Price reduced from £154,995 to £119,995 (Your Move)

by James Charles

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Related links

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How to release equity from your home

The beginner's guide to the credit crunch

The beginner's guide to mortgages

Comments

[Nico]

Are you insane?
From the Times today: "Introducing the Bank's latest quarterly Inflation Report, Mervyn King, the Bank's Governor, said that the country was in a "deep recession"."

What part of that do you not understand? If you expect a recovery in the house market in the teeth of the deepest financial crisis since the 30's, you are truly deluded. Best case scenario is a total fall of between 40%-50% from peak - we are not even halfway there yet. More realistically a 75% fall is quite possible.
So please, cut the talk about "bargains" - every single one of the properties you list above will fall in value by at least 40% over the next 12-18 months. Stop inciting the financially inept and weak of mind to ruin their (and their children's) lives.

[vicki]

Chelmford and croydon!

[Michael S]

I'm with Nico. We will see a few dead cat bounces on the way down. Those with a vested interest in house transactions will proudly announce each bounce as a strong signs of a recovery but there is another 30% to go.

[PAR]

Deep recession yes but how different are we to the early 1990's! about 14% in interest rates! and don't forget even with 4 million unemployed there is still 27 million people working and with house builders building 60,000 in 2008/09 when we need 200+ a year thats 280,000 houses less than we NEED so demand is going decide the market.
We are not a USA or Spain who have a oversupply of houses we have a under supply in most towns across the UK!

[NICK]

Nico I applaud your comments - one wonders why a respected journal such as The Times, allows such rubbish to go online without sensible editorial control - the article is completely misleading and dangerously inaccurate!

[Jack Coates]

I agree with Nico too. My house price in 1990 was £75K, it went up to £350K and last one sold at £240K. We are still far away from any rises with room for going down to £75K. Fact is we are in recession, there is no money being lent by the banks and they would be applying the same criteria for giving out credits as they used in 1990s and before.

[Paul B]

You are having a laugh, aren't you?

[Geoff]

Well that was as daft as you can get. Look for postcodes with low crime and where parents care about education. Look for the Oxbridge university towns. Look for well connected places that are not thoroughfares. Look for access to London and proximity to river or sea.

[Jonathan]

I agree with Nico and Michael's viewpoints but there are, and always will be, oddballs out there which distort the numbers and will be grist to the "it's all OK" mill: eg, a house (4/5 bed, a few acres) near us was on for a ridiculous £820k a year ago. No sale. A neighbour bid £480k recently and was being seriously considered when someone else came in at £580k. It seems the latter didn't even ask the agent about other offers and it's cost them £100k! A fool and his money... of course it may not go through...

[Mr G]

Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha.

About 2025 I should think!

[Dave]

Where is the "pent-up demand" supposed to get a mortgage from when average LTV's are 30%? The market has a long way to fall yet - Bring on the return to sane house prices!

[Evan]

It's hilarious that people still spout the old 'undersupply' line about housing in the UK. Last time I looked there weren't loads of employed people wandering around sleeping rough because of lack of available places to live.
There's been an oversupply of credit, not an undersupply of houses. Now the credit's gone what do you reckon's gone to happen to this popular myth?

[;;;]

I agree that the focus of this article on Brighton and Hove is weird ... The recession is actually arriving late to the South and specially Brighton and Hove are not job rising areas. I guess the article meant that 8 million people who visits Brighton and no longer buy in Spain, may buy in Brighton instead. It is a very very risky analysis, I agree there is no grounds to believe that Brighton and Hove will not be severely hitted by the recession.

[Alex]

Nico, what worries me is that I think you would actually be happy if thousands of people saw the values of their homes collapse 75%. We are not all greedy investors out to make a quick buck. Your predictions would bring untold misery to many families.

[Alex]

Furthermore a 75% fall is truly ridiculous once you look at the figures. Taking average house price of £184k in Aug 07, a 75% fall would make average house prices £46k. That is only just over 1.5 times the average salary of £30k a year! Assuming you spent say £7.5k a year on your mortgage (just for illustrative purposes) this would mean the average person would pay off their mortgage in six years. Seems a bit far fetched to me. Something very odd would have to happen to salaries before £46k for a house seemed anything but ridiculously cheap.

[gr]

Quote: "Bargain property:

Watkin Road, Leicester, LE3. One bedroom, ....Price reduced from £154,995 to £119,995"

Average income = £25000.

4x £25000 = £100,000

So where is the "Bargain property"? Did someone borrow 7x their wages? Naughty, naughty!

Perhaps the current economic situation will encourage the UK public to adopt a more balanced and responsible lifestyle with emphasis on 'homes' rather than 'investment potential'.

[Nico]

Alex - oh yeah? How about listening to one of our glorious leaders, the charming Mr. Balls:
"The reality is that this is becoming the most serious global recession for, I'm sure, over 100 years as it will turn out."

He added: "I think this is a financial crisis more extreme and more serious than that of the 1930s."

Or how about this reported in the Times from the IMF:
"Britain will be the sick man of Europe. Indeed it will be the sick man of the world. The International Monetary Fund’s forecast that the economy will shrink by 2.8 per cent puts Britain at the bottom of the league for all large industrialised economies. Only Japan, with a predicted fall of 2.6 per cent, comes close."

The reference to Japan is poignant - in that crash (still ongoing), residential properties fell to less than 10% of their value at peak. I'm sure that would have seemed "ridiculous" when viewed from the halcyon days of x10, 75 year mortgages. Those days are gone.

I'm sure if a year ago you had descibed the near-collapse of the banking system with mergers, nationalisations, bail-outs needed in the trillions, that would have been "ridiculous" too. It happened. Deal with it.

I do not wish this on anyone, but people (including you) need to realise that it is indeed "different this time" - we are facing an economic catastrophe not experienced for several generations. The best you can hope for is debilitating hyper-inflation (which appears to be the BoE's intention). In a couple of years time, you will be worrying about how to feed yourself and your family.

[Nico]

And Alex, as for your point about bringing untold misery to many families, do you think inciting families to buy massively overpriced houses which are certain to drop in value by at least 40% is responsible? Do you think 10 or more years of crushing negative equity and 25 years of crippling debt burden is good?
If anyone attempted to persuade people to buy any other asset class with such misrepresentation and outright lies as with "property", it would quite rightly be classed as fraud. Forget Madoff, the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time was the UK property market 1997 to 2007.

[Owen]

Nico. 75% fall??? u must be insane too mate - either that or just willing financial ruin on others for your own benefit..
probably more like the latter, as can be said for most of the doomsayers that post here.

[starling]

"That is only just over 1.5 times the average salary of £30k a year! "

25k. And that 25k includes those who earn millions a year. Take those away, and the average person earns even less than that. The true "average" earner can't afford anything above 80,000 quid, if that.

Negative equity should not matter. You buy a house to live in it, not as an investment. If you buy a house to make a nice profit, thus driving the prices up so much that nobody can afford to buy a house anymore, then on your head be it.

The government should ban banks from lending mortgages over 3.5 times a person's wage. That should get the house prices back to normal pretty darn quick.

[Nico]

Anyone who buys now at anything more than 50% of the asking price, or obtains a mortgage at more than 50% loan-to-value faces financial ruin. Fact.

Media stories like this one are grotesquely irresponsible and the public deserves to be protected from such stories.

And a 75% fall from peak is quite possible (and maybe even probable) in the coming economic climate.

[Khan]

If you buy in the next couple of years then you will live to regret it.

Prices have got a long way to go before they return to the mean; and remember there WILL be an overshoot too. I know for a fact that somes houses are changing hands at 50% discounts in my local area, and these are not necessarily at auction.

Ignore such irresponsible articles, the author has a vested interest in property and trying to get fools to part with their money.

Don't be a greater fool.

Khan

[Khan]

Top posts by Nico.

Readers, remember this. What were the estate agents saying about property only 18 months ago? A one way ticket to riches! And yet look what is happening.... And it will get worse, most property prices are still aspirational and sooner or later they will be perspirational!

Khan

[Paul Matthews]

So much anger, so much denial....

Irrespective of motivation - interesting that so many posters here believe that Nico et al have the power to move the markets - the UK property market is still 25 - 50% over-valued.

Not fair? Maybe not, but fairness has nothing to do with it.

[T Miller]

I am almost at a loss what to write. We are entering a depression which is very likely to make the great depression look like a mild financial inconvenience. It's fair to say the article does say "first to bounce back", but it's not going to happen anytime soon.

Why are there still a few people who want prices to stop going down and go up again. Houses are still so over priced and look where it has taken us. Prices need to drop a lot further to ensure our generation and the next don't struggle.

[alison]

I'm a potential first time buyer with good savings in Islington. There is no way I am buying now. Nice try Times. Someone trying to sell their pad or keep prices inflated in north London perchance? hahahah. Not buying it. Literally.

[A Reader]

One of the most poorly researched and biased articles I've read in The Times. Repeating almost all the previous comments - we're facing a very serious recession. Unemployment will continue to rise, house prices fall. Please can we stop this nonsense.

[sbjme19]

I have n't read such rubbish for a long time. This looks like an early April Fool's joke.

[Tom]

Average wages in the UK are 24k p/a, but average household income is around 32k. Given that most houses are bought by couples rather than individuals, that gives an expected average house price of £140,800 assuming a 10% deposit and a 4x multiplier. Seems reasonable.

The economy will do just as well or as badly as we think it will. It works on confidence. Now, boys and girls, close your eyes and clap your hands and say ...

[Bill]

Desperate, desperate, desperate. I'm too kind to think that this kind of estate agent wishful thinking is always a conscious attempt to talk up the market, but estate agents always tell you that now is the right time to buy. "Never been a better time, mate: prices are falling, you can pick up a bargain/prices are rising, you've got to get in quick before you're priced out".

[Gordon Hickley]

It was this kind of hyping the market that caused the housing bubble in the first place.

[The Bear]

This is very poorly researched. As someone who lives in Islington it is ridiculous to state that property prices have risen here in the last 12 months. I believe at my level, around £800,000 they are down at least 20%.

[Rabbani]

This type of reporting should be a criminal offense.
It was the rabid housing frenzy and housing bubble which caused the depression.
to all purposes Britian is bankrupt, and you have the same people the minions who caused this still coming out with tripe like we have here.
sorry so the harsh words but you need to take a reality check

[will]

M20 is Didsbury not Central Mcr, Didsbury is very desirable and consequently quite resilient. However their are plenty of properties that have been languishing on rightmove for many months and quite a few that have been subject to large reductions in the asking price!!!!

[john cake]

Articles like this have long become tedious. Why don't you give us all a break from badly researched 'bargain buying'?

[David]

Ya Right! If you say so.

[Frank Upton]

I thought we'd seen the end of property porn for a good long while. Let's hope house prices keep falling, so that homes become more affordable.

[Bob Dawes]

The contents of this thinly veiled property ramping advert belong in an estate agent's window and not masquerading as an article in a newspaper.

How about an article that highlight's the worst fall's and some of the misery caused by articles like this. And how about a basic description of the peril's of leveraging yourself up to take a bet on property.

[A.A.Islahi]

With looming unemployment levels of 3.75 Million, only a fool would venture to guess the price levels.Even if interest rates come down to nothing,housing demand would be weak in the absence of jobs.Investors from abroad would not be attracted also when value of Pound is shaky to uncertain.

[Tim Lacaster]

What is it with you journalists trying to get house prices to rise? We are about to go into a depression ... I am sorry to say that prices are going to continue to go down.

[Emily]

Has it escaped James Charles's notice that thousands of people are losing their jobs at Canary Wharf? And as for a 1 bed flat "still under construction" in Leicester being a bargain at £119k - dream on! No wonder the banks don't want to lend when prices are so very out of kilter with earnings.

[JD]

Been said before and it'll be said again:

20% off something 100% overvalued is NOT a bargain.

However, feel free to 'snap up' if you want at these levels James. Croydon's particularly nice at this time of year and who wouldn't want to pay a third of a million pounds to buy a terraced house there?

[Father Ignatius Brown]

Nico shows a lot more sense and understanding than the author of this poor bit of estate agent puffery (even if I find the idea of a 75% fall hard to conceive - Japan, another crowded island, shows what can happen to property prices even when people have savings).

Personal debt in this country is at an all time high - that will unwind. The London School of Economics says there is a 50% chance that the stockmarket won't recover its highs of 6000+ for another 10 years as companies unwind debt and cut dividends (and jobs and pay). Sure that also means there is a 50% chance that it will recover before then but those aren't very good odds when you consider that shares "look" historically cheap.

While our problems are very much home grown (despite what Gormless Clown will tell you - the subprime disaster in the States was the catalyst but any catalyst would have done the job of turning his boom to bust) they are being compounded by huge global macro-economic forces that are beyond the control of meddling politicians. The so called Great Moderation has turned into the Great Debt Unwind. Like in the 20s in the UK and early 30s in the US there will be brief outbreaks of optimism that will be quickly followed by another round of doom. This is going to take a while so get used to it.

The one thing in our favour is our free floating exchange rate. If the government really wanted to turn things round they should start by slashing the size of the state (to the provision of bare necessities) and slashing all taxes on business and employment, along with the red tape that stymies new business and all restrictions on trade (in and out). We need to create a hyper competitive tax system and encourage a more flexible work-force (so lower taxes for freelancers for instance). Only by unleashing the competitive and creative spirit of the nation can we hope to recover.

[Socrates]

Anybody know how to break out of the following spiral?

nobody buys anything
business cannot invest - or make money or buy/create services
business cannot buy anything
people lose their jobs
people cannot pay mortgage or bills
banks lose money on debt defaults
banks restrict their lending based upon their defaults
business that is healthy cannot invest/buy/create
more people lose their jobs
more people default on mortgages
more debt for banks
prices actually rise because business cannot borrow from banks (hyper inflation)
people cannot afford essential items
more business's go bust
more people lose their jobs
more default on debt

massive unemployment 6-8 million
civil unrest
chaos

currency becomes worthless as a majority "trade" services or products (food items)

a new currency is born

This is where we are heading - but it need not happen. It is NOT inevitable. But it is very real.

Discuss.

[john]

The 'article' has not established an explicit connection between 'bargains' and 'bouncing back', (whereas a discussion of this point could be rather interesting.) Was this careless sub-editing or as several readers seem to feel, just too close to an advertising feature?

[Nick B]

Not sure why people are so worried about a recession and joblosses. According to these pages, nobody needs to work. We can all live off the extra wealth created by rising real estate prices. Love it! Nb I doubt that Charles James is the real name. The author was most likely too embarassed to sign this thinly disguised attempt to attrac real estate advertising revenues.

[T Andre]

Looks like the Brighton property mafia are at it again, "London-by-the-Sea" and all that.

They seem to have good contacts with the journalists.

[david b]

We are in recession and the banks are in crisis but the housing market is not and will bounce back. There are a million empty properties in the UK-where is the shortage?

[Oliver S]

There must be a real world, and a Real estate agents world... in Islington, house prices went down 13.8% over the last year according to Landregistry's January report.

[Tim]

Nico, i am just about to buy again because i can half my outgoings from renting and get a bigger house for my children. How financially inept is that??????

Reporters say hope, Comments say disaster. Whose right? Probably neither but the truth lies somewhere in between. Those who crticise the reports postive nature are equally irresponsible in preaching doom.

[Mark]

If the price you are paying suits you, buy.
If the price isnt suited, don't.

Just do not make the mistake of taking advice from forums and sites such as this!!

[DP]

Is the Times determined to join the ranks of the worst of the Tabloids? Embarrassingly bad article.

[JCB]

Jamies Charles should be ashamed of himself. As should all of these other 'experts' who are happily suckering people on a daily basis. Have they no sense of social responsibility? I urge everyone who sees an article like this to email the approriate editor to complain about such irresponsible journalism.

[Gareth]

Excellent news! I have a place in BN3!

[dan]

i live in leicester. you could buy any number of large 2 bed flats, in better postcodes than le3, for well under £100,000. i presume the other locations are just as badly researched.

[Peter]

I am currently in Florida looking to buy a 3 bed villa in a nice area, it was built in 2004 and sold then for $310000, it resold the begining of 2008 for $220000 - i am looking to pay $95000.

But dont worry the UK will bounce back really quick and £300000 for a tiny flat is very fair value - Dream on prices still have "At Least" 30% to fall and stay there ( give or take minimal inflation) for the next 10 or more years, there will be no next bubble other than in the minds of those who have over-stretched or are vested interests.

[Paul]

I'm not sure where the author is getting their figures from but if you look at land registry you'll see Brighton and Hove dropped by 12% last year.

In fact Nationwide said it was the 9th fastest falling area.

[Matt]

Sorry JCB I totally agree with this article which is not a story but based on FACTS. The fact is not everywhere is falling. I live in an area which hasn't fallen due to the fact that people aren't desperate to sell so they won't drop the price. I couldn't give two hoots about social responsibility to be honest, and if more people were honest about it, they look after their own as no one else will. I am not a socialist, I'm a capitalist so for me and the majority looking after their own, bring on rising asset values! Screw the socialists, look what they have done to our country.

[Hugh]

Rightmove has done well to get a frontpage link on the Times website to some of its promotional material.

[JIMMY]

Tim - 100% financially inept as you appear to have ignored the capital value. You are punting on house prices stabilizing / rising.

[Peter]

Oh - Nico may well be right as well, when houses become what they really are - that is expensive liabilities rather than investment assetts people will pay what the least they really have too, in many ways its lucky the credit crunch has happened to bring the world back to reality, 75% drop well certainly in places such as city centre flats ( who ever wants to live in the centre of most misserable uk citys any way ) and 50% in real terms for the rest, the average house in the uk will settle to 3 x Average earnings - you work it out.

[C]

And this article in in the 'Times'? My jaw dropped reading this... where was the research; who exactly believes that a new build apartment in Leicester is a good buy right now? It would have been interesting for the 'journalist' to have had a look at how much new build inventory there is in the city at the moment. This is the least credible journalism I've read in a long time, is James Charles on work experience there?

[James Thomas]

Owen @ 11 Feb. If property is 75% over-valued, why should a 75% drop come as a surprise? This was a train crash waiting to happen. Precisely why my girlfriend and I (despite bringing in £45k a year) deliberately avoided boarding the train. The idea that someone would fork out £150k+ on a 1-bed flat is completely nuts! When a good-sized family home in a decent area can be bought for less than £100k, then we're starting to see the bottom of the market. Anyone buying now needs their head examining.

[Paul]

I know you're got to write stuff to keep yourselves busy and the paper full, but really! It's a pity you guys can't get sued if people lose money based on advice in articles like this. It might make you think twice before putting out this kind of semi-researched pseudo-analytical ****.

[T Andre]

How can a home of 1.1 million be a bargain, what planet are they on.

real estate mafia, and their cronies journalists doing their spin again

[Fun Gary]

'Croydon CR0 is the second most searched postcode on the Rightmove website'. CR0 is actually the largest postcode area in the country, so it is not that surprising that it ranks highly.

[Hugh Hall]

How long do newspapers think they can get away with printing this garbage? Do you not realise that the UK's love affair with house price inflation and owning homes at ANY price is over. It will be a long long time before it ever returns. Get over it and find another way to generate revenue or you'll go the same way as estate agents.

[A Mark]

People are starting to look at buying now because they perceive prices now to be a bargain. Indeed, compared to the peak last year prices are at a bargain level, but compared to the inevitable low that we are yet to reach, current prices will look extremely expensive.
The housing market has been overvalued for years. People who buy houses now will face losing thousands of pounds from the value of their homes.

[Mr Excitement]

I don't visit the Times website too often and this type of piece reminds me why. If I wanted to be presented with a wildly optimistic view of the housing market spun by someone with a blatant vested interest, I'd go to the nearest estate agent (that hasn't closed down).

Having said that, it's good to see from the comments that people know when they're being fed c**p. At least most do, there's obviously still a few that will never admit that they've been caught out by a classic price bubble, and decry those that are stating the bleeding obvious as 'doom-mongers' etc (Tim, Owen, take a bow...) It's certainly not doom for me or most in my age group; every time I hear of falling house prices I imagine a big chunk being sliced off my future mortgage!

[Howard]

NG5 eh? That'll be Top Valley; here's a copy and paste of the entire Wikipedia entry for this district:

Top Valley is an area of Nottingham. It is located to the south of Rise Park, to the north and west of Bestwood, to the southwest of Bestwood Park and to the east of Bulwell. Top Valley has a large Tesco supermarket.

So was it the supermarket that propelled it into the top ten?

[Matt]

There is an undersupply of property in the UK. 2 parts, there is a massive over supply of properties no one wants to live in, and the under supply is ones that are less popular. There are plenty of entire streets empty such as Manchester, and I can assure you they make up the bulk of vacant housing in this country, fancy moving into a boarded up street? No, didn't think so. Too many flats built which are not family friendly is another issue. The housing bubble was a result of rampant gambling on securitised debt worldwide, not the cause as some people think. I think it will take 5 years to fully recover, but when it does there will be another boom. Good for some and unfortunate for others. But people on this message board seriously need to get a grip. Are house prices any higher even today than they were in the 1930's post depression? You'll find the answer is yes. That is my prediction, don't care how long it will take to recover but it will, not bothered about negative equity because I just won't sell, and at the moment my mortgage is £200 per month, while my neighbour is renting a smaller property for £950 per month. Happy days! And a positive mental attitude seperates the winners from the losers.

[;;;]

Brighton and Hove are peaceful places (except outside a pub on closing time). As the crisis hit the UK, the respected areas of the South will become even more desirable as the gangs spread activity in the rest. Detroit is an example of this. Violence, gangs and fear has impacted the property market. So, it makes sense for Brighton and Hove. However, it does not make sense for the other cities.

[Sebastian Cargutt]

I'm not quite sure why the insistence that some areas are better than others. There are so many factors that it is impossible to select one particular postcode as out(under)performing another at the moment. Face it, we're all in the same dung pile - and this article isn't going to make me wish I lived somewhere else, well not somewhere else in this country.

[Chris Likes The Facts]

I think Rightmove should be made to publish the listing price for a property, time on the market and eventually the selling price (like eBay). The true value of anything to be sold is detemined by the potential buying power of purchaser.

As we see from true hard statistics nothing is really being sold/bought, so guessing the value is the next best thing for the rightmove/estate agent 'experts'.

All I would say is work on statistics not news paper articles. Jobs are going fast, banks will not part with cash, salaries are reducing. Oh and properties are sitting on the market for a long time.

Would you really pay the Rightmove average house price in these conditions? Even if you could get the mortgage you probably wouldn't be able to sleep in your over priced house working out if you will ever be able to find a buyer as crazy as you....

[Mark]

To 'Chrislikesthefacts'

Download firefox 3 and open.
Goto propertybee and download that. Open.
When registering, make sure you tick 'work in a bee'.

All facts now become avail on searched properties since they were first searched.

[Mark]

Guys who cares? there is no right or wrong just opinions. My properties have increased by £1.3 million over the past decade. Think I care if they fall 25% before going back up? My worst mortgage tracks at .76 below base until Oct 2010.£880k of mortgages for £176 a month. So give me a break about how clever all you renters are and why in your fundamentally flawed opinion you should avoid the property market. You have to pay for a roof over your head anyway so why not have one that increases in value? Is there really anyone out there who thinks they will buy a house in 10 years for less than today? Guys like you make guys like me wealthy.

[Derek Smith]

I've got to say I agree with Matt of 14.47. There is still an undersupply of houses that people want to buy. My son is looking for his second home at the moment having already sold his previous one and I would suggest it would take a brave person to suggest to him that prices have fallen. His deposit is losing value as it is earning no interest.

The panic buying in the recent past pushed up the value of poor quality, or badly located, houses. These are now difficult to shift but if you want something half-way decent then you will not find prices plummeting.

My son grimaces at the reports of 10-20-30% drops in house prices. Bit of a laugh really.

If you live near a decent school you can demand premium prices. As always.

Last month's crime figures for my Neighbourhood Watch area were one att. burglary and a damaged car. There are two houses for sale near me and the owners are not taking offers. If I was to sell my house then someone would have to pay me what it was worth 6 months ago.

[Phil]

Mark, Tell me where you get £880k of mortgages for £176 a month!!!
It must be over 100 years!!!

[Mark]

Phil £880k BTL interest only mortgages over 25 years taken in Oct 07 on a three year tracker at .76% below base, base is 1% so current pay rate is .24% which is £2112 per annum or £176 a month. BTL mortgages you always take as interest only as all the interest is offset against rental income, so it is the most tax efficient way to fund.

I admit to being embarrassed by the ridiculously low payment but I just pay what they ask for and enjoy the additional £3000 a month income.

It's important to point out that it's not all bad news for everyone, even although it will stick in throats of the " we told it would all go wrong" bloggers

[Tony]

As soon as money is available people buy houses with it as that is the only thing rea;ly worth buying as it has a dramatic effect on your every day life. Watch the money supply especially with quatative easing coming up!

[Chris]

Mark - I wish you luck on your property adventure but guess you will need to save some cash for OCT 2010 when your BTL fixed rate below base ends and your stock is worth a staggering 30% less.

[Np]

For the sake of sanity, leave it out.
The housing market is toast, along with the economy and jobs market. You'll be lucky to eat soon enough, and the media still spout on about a housing market.
I search Rightmove doing researches, but that doesn't mean I want to buy yet.
There will be no bounce back, bubbles always collapse to a constant level, and this time it will be for years. The average house will head back to 60 grand. Get used to it.

[Tony]

The amout of people who want prices to go down is showing the amount of pent up demand in the market
demand can only take markets one way! looks like up!

[Peter]

Mark

You have taken a chance and made money - i think you will be ok but the ways BTL have been helped like so many things should not have happened, second homes for BTL is actually very bad for the economy and a real government would have taxed it very heavily as it should have been and may well yet ( Do you really think Mr Cameron cares about 250000 BTL landlords Vs 20000000 potential voters he can please with cheaper housing and blame GB for it all ).

As for housing obviously there is little on the market as people dont want to take a loss, that wll change over the next 12 months however, printing money can go eitehr way for UK PLC - it probably will seriosly push up inflation towards 10%, that will be disasterous as the BOE will have to raise rates drastically ( and your 880k Mortgage ) towards 5% or more to control it ( they will naturally lie about what the real inflation figure is ), this they know and hense the reluctance to really print money - last time they did IRs went to 13%, that would make your monthly payments a tad below £10K a month.

[Jose]

Totally agree with Tony. All those who claim that all hope of recovery is futile and state agents who talk about it are just trying to "talk the market up" are just tryin to "talk the market down" themselves in the hope of making a bigger profit.

[Jose]

In response to the catastrophic predictions by NP, so in line with the general doom-mongering mood: in Spain 17% of the population is unemployed and rising. Compare that to the 5% unemployment rate in the UK. I´m just saying that the UK is very well equiped to cope with this crisis and everybody knows this (International Credit worthiness of the UK is being mantained at the top of the tables) except, it seems, britons themselves.
The downturn is not going to pass if all we have is this feeling of dispair and doom. this country has risen from worst situations and will rise again, surely.

[tony]

after 10 years of boom and only 8 months of crash no one can be calling the bottom just yet (unless they have a vested interest).

I agree with the experts that we still have 15%-20% left to fall and that prices will level in 2010.

[Mark - Not the property guru]

Has anybody any credible evidence to support their "feeling", aside from a thinly veiled interest in either buying or selling to make bigger profit?

I doubt it.

[john bentley]

who wrote this rubbish. someone without the faintest idea of what is going on in the real world or of its future for the next ten years.
House will be half then what they are now.

[May]

This is so unrealistic. We live in Croydon. We accepted an offer of 350,000 last April but our buyer failed to sell. We lost the house we wanted and took our house off the market. It's now worth £220k where the hell do they get their percentages from? We can only hope we have reached the bottom.

[Mark]

I once responded to a guy who said" your home is only worth what someone wants to pay for it by offering him a fiver. He replied thats ridiculous, he's right it was, but no more so than his original statement. Why do the guys that hate property and forecast it's massive falls in value believe that somehow they know what no one else in the UK knows? It's an incredible arrogance to claim houses will fall by x or y, you simply don't know. I have never met anyone who got rich renting, but I have spent a lifetime listening to them say "if only" I somehow feel another "if only" moment coming on for the country's know it all's who have no money but big green eyes.

[Nico]

Mark - it is called basic economics, suggest you look it up on wikipedia (or something).

And for all those BTL investors, still confusing massive debt with wealth, "Soon there will be margin calls, and still more will be forced to sell. So the bubble breaks."

All very pitiable really.

[Tony]

You can by your own house for less than renting now, and own it in 25yrs or rent your whole life and have nothing its as simple as that!

[Andy]

With UK banks in very deep trouble (see today's news on Lloyds), there is no way there will be any recovery (certainly not a 'bounce'). The UK market will only recover once banks become solvent. That will take many years.

[JD]

"If I was to sell my house then someone would have to pay me what it was worth 6 months ago.

Posted by: Derek Smith"

No they wouldn't, Derek. A buyer doesn't 'have' to pay you anything apart from the rate set at the margins of the market. You say people in your street are 'not accepting offers' - so have they sold their houses?

Delusion and denial I'm afraid. Time will tell.

[pete]

UK property values are one of the most overvalued in the world, they have to fall somewhere like 50% to fall in line with reality.

[Liam]

More and more people losing their jobs by the day creates a situation where mortgages cannot be paid. As repossessions occur and house prices drop slightly, most first time buyers (like myself) still cannot afford to buy a house. The simple reason being that the banks request a deposit of at least 20,000 pounds for a mortgage. This means there are less buyers on the market so without the demand the prices drop even more rapidly. 75% drop sounds a bit too large but I believe at least a 50% drop over next 3 to 4 years. Who knows...

[Amused reader]

Hi!

Fascinating reading here......are all of you English? Apart from the obvious lack of understanding of financial matters, there is also apparently a pretty major issue with the English language....looks to me like a lot of these property experts should learn how to spell their own language....... ; )

[kay]

i live in hove, and its not all it seems, western road is creeping down, with the aloholics and drug addicts sleeping in the empty shop doorways, and the beaches full off chavs, please dont even think of it as a safe area, prices need to fall at least 30%. some estate agent has paid a lot of money to get this into the press. do not buy your money will end up never seeing the light again

[liz]

Hove is not a good place to buy, its over inflated, and its being tarnished with a lot of scum from brighton, estate agents are just trying to get your money, there are much better places to live, and prices need to drop at least another 25% before even thinking of buying here, and there are no jobs for your kids, shops are closing down every day